The Fermi Paradoxand the Great Filter

[Castle Doctrine]

I have long been intrigued by the Fermi Paradox. It asked the fascinating question of "Where is everyone?" in a most compelling way.

Now, one area of speculation here is that most sentient species are eliminated by a "Great Filter" or a series of filter events. The neighborhood is empty because most civilizations destroy themselves before reaching "adulthood". Two popular candidates for the "Great Filter" are nuclear weapons (or just nuke power) and environmental fouling...like climate change or a Nuclear Winter.

Recently, I have read several comments suggesting that a lot of folks here would have no problem using nukes...especially on those who are assumed to be unable to respond in kind. This puzzled me until someone referred to nukes as "conventional weapons". Apparently, there are those in our World who have become so comfortable with nukes that there now exists a segment of our society that no longer finds the use of nukes unthinkable.

When the first nukes were used we thought of them as just big bombs...really big, but not so different from iron bombs really. Then, for a few sane decades the whole World live in fear of a Nuclear Holocaust. Now, we make popular movies about post-apocalyptic heroes. We once more view these things as just big bomb. This attitude is extremely dangerous. It leads to the insane idea that we can actually use nukes as just another weapon...that their use is ever going to be acceptable, or survivable.

So, my point is, perhaps the REAL "Great Filter" is the process of becoming to comfortable (and enamored) of nuclear weapons. The problem isn't inventing the foul things...it is familiarity which leads to failure to appreciate the dangerous of such attitudes. And that might well lead to species extinction. Just something to think about next time someone starts opining that we should nuke (fill in the blank).

Very unsound think, I feel.

[mayhem]

Is it getting solipsistic in here or is it just me?

ATDoW

[millergrovesue]

Is it getting solipsistic in here or is it just me?

ATDoW

I think CD's post struck me more as philosophical than solipsistic. And I agree with him. Sane people are right fear nukes like we did in the early 60s........but with more knowledge (like knowing that hiding under your desk will not protect you from nuclear fallout for a start ) I believe that once a country utilizes them in a war situation that will indeed be the end of the world. If that's not a terrifying concept then nothing is.

[planosteve]

Speaking of solipsistic, reminds me. Where is Ralph? He is MIA.

[BigTex]

As Euripides once said: "Nuke 'em all. Let God sort it out."

[planosteve]

As Euripides once said: "Nuke 'em all. Let God sort it out."

I thought he said "Puke on em all."

[Castle Doctrine]

As Euripides once said: "Nuke 'em all. Let God sort it out."

I thought he said "Puke on em all."

I think the quote is from Richelieu regarding Huguenots. As I recall, he said, "Kill them all. God will know his own."

I started this thread with all seriousness. Perhaps, the reference to Fermi was off-putting. I simply used it as an entrée to my real point. That we have become far to comfortable with discussing the use of nukes...we are talking about them as if they really were just big iron bombs. There is apparently no consideration of the long-term effects of a nuclear exchange. The fact that someone who should know better would say, "Nuke 'em all." (even in jest) is sobering.

You simply cannot drop nukes (smallest in the inventory is believed to be 150 kt...10x Hiroshima) without significant impact on the entire planet. And that assumes only WE use them. How likely is that?

So, my suggestion that the Great Filter was the insane idea that nukes can be used just like a big iron bomb was an attempt to highlight this folly. Complacency and familiarity are leading us to wallow in this insanity. Even our military has gotten sloppy with them. See the USAF scandals on handling and the USN issues with nuke training and the Sub command. Hell, the Russians are way ahead of us...they see them as fungible assets (at least base commanders seem to).

My reference to Fermi and the Filter was simply to get folks to thinking. What if every species that develops nukes reaches the point of comfort with nukes that results in species extinction? That would mean we are similarly fated...unless we change our thinking radically. I despair of that given the fact that we can't even agree to save the environment or recognize the UNINTENTIONAL damage we have already caused to the planet.

And, for anyone who doesn't care...well, think about all the kids today being cut down for our ignorance and arrogance. What are you trying so hard to avoid abortions for...so they can cook in a nuclear furnace later? This is serious topic and I get accused of being solipsistic...where does anyone see that...please explain.

Sorry if I put anyone off with the reference to an abstract issue like Fermi's Paradox. I was looking for a non-partisan way to introduce this issue. I guess I over-reached a bit.

[planosteve]

We missed the chance to eliminate all nuculear weapons after the SU collapsed. That would have been the time to do it. But, we were too arrogent to want to give ours up. Now, it's probably too late.

[GFB]

We missed the chance to eliminate all nuculear weapons after the SU collapsed. That would have been the time to do it. But, we were too arrogent to want to give ours up. Now, it's probably too late.

The horse was already out of the barn and running down the track.

There's no putting the genie back in the bottle, there's only destroying the capabilities of any country that the world cannot afford to allow to have them..like Iran.

[GFB]

Dismantling the nuclear weapons in the U.S. immediately turns us into a non player in the world.

[planosteve]

We missed the chance to eliminate all nuculear weapons after the SU collapsed. That would have been the time to do it. But, we were too arrogent to want to give ours up. Now, it's probably too late.

The horse was already out of the barn and running down the track.

There's no putting the genie back in the bottle, there's only destroying the capabilities of any country that the world cannot afford to allow to have them..like Iran.

What do you mean by capabilities?

[GFB]

We missed the chance to eliminate all nuculear weapons after the SU collapsed. That would have been the time to do it. But, we were too arrogent to want to give ours up. Now, it's probably too late.

The horse was already out of the barn and running down the track.

There's no putting the genie back in the bottle, there's only destroying the capabilities of any country that the world cannot afford to allow to have them..like Iran.

What do you mean by capabilities?

Any place, any material and any person that is on track to make a contribution to Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.

[planosteve]

Binyamin Netanyahu’s dramatic declaration to world leaders in 2012 that Iran was about a year away from making a nuclear bomb was contradicted by his own secret service, according to a top-secret Mossad document.

[mayhem]

CD,

Sorry you took it wrong. Wasn't intending to call anyone solipsistic. For
some odd reason the first part of the note in question just bumped that
into the leading edge of my consciousness.

Kinda like this note will bump the thread. OH, well.

No unkindness intended. I just LIKE that 'joke.'

TDW

[jellowrestling]

We missed the chance to eliminate all nuculear weapons after the SU collapsed. That would have been the time to do it. But, we were too arrogent to want to give ours up. Now, it's probably too late.

The horse was already out of the barn and running down the track.

There's no putting the genie back in the bottle, there's only destroying the capabilities of any country that the world cannot afford to allow to have them..like Iran.

As with most things, liberals are responsible for this problem. They gave our nuclear secrets to the Soviets. That opened Pandora's Box.

[planosteve]

We missed the chance to eliminate all nuculear weapons after the SU collapsed. That would have been the time to do it. But, we were too arrogent to want to give ours up. Now, it's probably too late.

The horse was already out of the barn and running down the track.

There's no putting the genie back in the bottle, there's only destroying the capabilities of any country that the world cannot afford to allow to have them..like Iran.

As with most things, liberals are responsible for this problem. They gave our nuclear secrets to the Soviets. That opened Pandora's Box.

The conservatives gave then to Israel or just winked and let them steal them. Bibi was caught smuggling nuclear triggers out of the US. That may eventually cause Armageden.