War in Ukraine

[Bob Of Burleson]

Ukrainian forces regain some rebel-held towns,
but face a tougher fight over Donetsk, the biggest of all

The Economist

THE Ukrainian flag flies again over Sloviansk, a former stronghold of eastern Ukraine’s separatists. Succumbing to some punishing shelling, the rebels retreated on July 5th, leaving behind a city blighted with bullet holes and bombed-out buildings. In areas they had vacated, unexploded mortars lay wedged into the asphalt.

After ending its unilateral ceasefire a week ago, the Ukrainian army has handed President Petro Poroshenko a symbolic and satisfying victory. Yet there is little sign of an end to the fighting that has claimed hundreds of lives in the past three months. Rather the fall of Sloviansk may herald a new phase of hostilities, around Donetsk, the regional capital. And if a protracted insurgency takes hold, Russia’s Vladimir Putin may come under mounting pressure to do more to help than he has done so far.

Mr Putin faces only unpalatable options. Having used state media to propagate the myth of a “genocide” of Russians in eastern Ukraine, he may find dumping the rebels outright to be politically untenable. Mark Galeotti of New York University argues that “Putin can’t just walk away.” On the other hand, escalation through more overt transfers of humanitarian aid, weapons and fighters would leave a struggling Russian economy vulnerable to further Western sanctions and its forces potentially bogged down in an intractable conflict.

Russian officials, including Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, have taken to saying that a negotiated settlement is their preferred solution. State propaganda has been toned down. Russia badly needs a deal with Kiev to supply Crimea, which it annexed in March, with water, electricity, gas and food. The threat of more sanctions is rattling Russian business.

The rebels, however, are not listening. They are calling the retreat from Sloviansk “a tactical decision”, and fortifying Donetsk for battle, building new checkpoints, blowing up bridges around the city and hunkering down in student dormitories. Leaders of Donetsk’s “people’s republic” complain that Mr Putin is not doing enough to help. They pledge to fight a real partisan war. Moscow has “a degree of influence” over the people’s republics, says Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, “but no real control”.

Mr Poroshenko, for his part, appears emboldened. A spokesman for the National Security and Defense Council claims that rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk are in for a “nasty surprise”. The army has retaken several smaller, lightly guarded cities on the road to Donetsk. On July 8th Mr Poroshenko donned snappy fatigues to congratulate his troops in Sloviansk (pictured above). He promised to restore services to residents who have been without water or electricity for several weeks.

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[Bob Of Burleson]

Ukraine says rebels will pay
as missiles kill 23 soldiers

By Natalia Zinets and Maria Tsvetkova

(Reuters) - Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko vowed to "find and destroy" pro-Russian rebels who killed 23 servicemen and wounded nearly 100 in a missile attack on Friday.

Poroshenko issued his angry statement following an emergency meeting of his security chiefs called in response to the early morning strike by Russian-made Grad missiles on an army motorised brigade near the border with Russia.

The attack, which came as government forces seemed to be prevailing in the three-month conflict, appeared to be the deadliest on government troops since the Ukrainian military ended a unilateral ceasefire on June 30.

"All those who used the Grad against the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be found and destroyed," Poroshenko said in a statement on his website.

"For every soldier's life, the militants will pay with scores and hundreds of their own. Not a single terrorist will avoid responsibility; each will get what they deserve," he said.

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