What Yellen Said
- planosteve
- Posts: 22905
- Joined: Sun May 25, 2014 8:04 pm
What Yellen Said
First she said:
… wage developments reflect not only cyclical but also secular trends that have likely affected the evolution of labor’s share of income in recent years. As I noted, real wages have been rising less rapidly than productivity, implying that real unit labor costs have been declining, a pattern suggesting that there is scope for nominal wages to accelerate from their recent pace without creating meaningful inflationary pressure. However, research suggests that the decline in real unit labor costs may partly reflect secular factors that predate the recession, including changing patterns of production and international trade, as well as measurement issues. If so, productivity growth could continue to outpace real wage gains even when the economy is again operating at its potential.
And if that did knock your socks off she said:
I would like to provide some context concerning the role of the labor market in shaping monetary policy over the past several years. During that time, the FOMC has maintained a highly accommodative monetary policy in pursuit of its congressionally mandated goals of maximum employment and stable prices.
Maximum employement??? Stable prices???
And then:
As the recovery progresses, assessments of the degree of remaining slack in the labor market need to become more nuanced because of considerable uncertainty about the level of employment consistent with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate
There's a recovery? Who knew And then;
As an accounting matter, the drop in the participation rate since 2008 can be attributed to increases in four factors: retirement, disability, school enrollment, and other reasons, including worker discouragement. Of these, greater worker discouragement is most directly the result of a weak labor market, so we could reasonably expect further increases in labor demand to pull a sizable share of discouraged workers back into the workforce.
And then:
Indeed, the flattening out of the labor force participation rate since late last year could partly reflect discouraged workers rejoining the labor force in response to the significant improvements that we have seen in labor market conditions. If so, the cyclical shortfall in labor force participation may have diminished.
I don't know about you, but I'm thinking I'm really feeling a whole lot different about the economy now.
… wage developments reflect not only cyclical but also secular trends that have likely affected the evolution of labor’s share of income in recent years. As I noted, real wages have been rising less rapidly than productivity, implying that real unit labor costs have been declining, a pattern suggesting that there is scope for nominal wages to accelerate from their recent pace without creating meaningful inflationary pressure. However, research suggests that the decline in real unit labor costs may partly reflect secular factors that predate the recession, including changing patterns of production and international trade, as well as measurement issues. If so, productivity growth could continue to outpace real wage gains even when the economy is again operating at its potential.
And if that did knock your socks off she said:
I would like to provide some context concerning the role of the labor market in shaping monetary policy over the past several years. During that time, the FOMC has maintained a highly accommodative monetary policy in pursuit of its congressionally mandated goals of maximum employment and stable prices.
Maximum employement??? Stable prices???
And then:
As the recovery progresses, assessments of the degree of remaining slack in the labor market need to become more nuanced because of considerable uncertainty about the level of employment consistent with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate
There's a recovery? Who knew And then;
As an accounting matter, the drop in the participation rate since 2008 can be attributed to increases in four factors: retirement, disability, school enrollment, and other reasons, including worker discouragement. Of these, greater worker discouragement is most directly the result of a weak labor market, so we could reasonably expect further increases in labor demand to pull a sizable share of discouraged workers back into the workforce.
And then:
Indeed, the flattening out of the labor force participation rate since late last year could partly reflect discouraged workers rejoining the labor force in response to the significant improvements that we have seen in labor market conditions. If so, the cyclical shortfall in labor force participation may have diminished.
I don't know about you, but I'm thinking I'm really feeling a whole lot different about the economy now.
"Nice little Jewish community you got here"-Arab world to Nut Job
Re: What Yellen Said
Thanks for that.
It's important to know the Fed's views and sentiments on where the economy is.
Because from that, we can keep tabs on what they will do next..which will effect all of us.
It's important to know the Fed's views and sentiments on where the economy is.
Because from that, we can keep tabs on what they will do next..which will effect all of us.
If you’re “woke”..you’re a loser.
Re: What Yellen Said
Too early to know if she will be good at her new job, but I love that she talks openly about everything they are doing and thinking of doing...more forthcoming than Ben Bernanke..and the guy before him, Alan Greenspan, wouldn't tell anybody anything.
If you’re “woke”..you’re a loser.
- planosteve
- Posts: 22905
- Joined: Sun May 25, 2014 8:04 pm
Re: What Yellen Said
If by "talking openly" you mean objectively, you must be nuts. I just showed you that this is the worst recovery ever. After 5 years there is barely any progress and that there is virtually none except where it has recreated bubbles in the stock market and the housing industry. And it looks like a brand new one in the subprime auto market.GFB wrote:Too early to know if she will be good at her new job, but I love that she talks openly about everything they are doing and thinking of doing...more forthcoming than Ben Bernanke..and the guy before him, Alan Greenspan, wouldn't tell anybody anything.
"Nice little Jewish community you got here"-Arab world to Nut Job
Re: What Yellen Said
planosteve wrote:If by "talking openly" you mean objectively, you must be nuts.GFB wrote:Too early to know if she will be good at her new job, but I love that she talks openly about everything they are doing and thinking of doing...more forthcoming than Ben Bernanke..and the guy before him, Alan Greenspan, wouldn't tell anybody anything.
Talking openly has nothing to do with objectivity. It means she actually runs her operation like Obama SAYS HE does..but does not..
..which is beyond "transparency"..she wears her views on her forehead..they couldn't be any more "in our faces."
She's not supposed to be objective, she was hired to be highly opinionated.
If you’re “woke”..you’re a loser.
Re: What Yellen Said
planosteve wrote:. I just showed you that this is the worst recovery ever.
Yeah right..you just showed me..I had no idea.
It's the worst recovery because it has taken 6 years to accomplish what ordinarily takes 1 or 2.
..but measuring what has happened in GDP, Capital utilization, housing starts, existing home sales and many other gauges that measure economic activity..the very slow recovery, 6 years later...is quite measurable.
If you’re “woke”..you’re a loser.
- planosteve
- Posts: 22905
- Joined: Sun May 25, 2014 8:04 pm
Re: What Yellen Said
Try to summon up a modicum of reality. Look at the absolutely nutso housing market in California. Is that normal in a country that has been in economic distress for the last 6 years? Or is it what happens in a bubble?GFB wrote:planosteve wrote:. I just showed you that this is the worst recovery ever.
Yeah right..you just showed me..I had no idea.
It's the worst recovery because it has taken 6 years to accomplish what ordinarily takes 1 or 2.
..but measuring what has happened in GDP, Capital utilization, housing starts, existing home sales and many other gauges that measure economic activity..the very slow recovery, 6 years later...is quite measurable.
"Nice little Jewish community you got here"-Arab world to Nut Job
Re: What Yellen Said
planosteve wrote:Try to summon up a modicum of reality. Look at the absolutely nutso housing market in California. Is that normal in a country that has been in economic distress for the last 6 years? Or is it what happens in a bubble?GFB wrote:planosteve wrote:. I just showed you that this is the worst recovery ever.
Yeah right..you just showed me..I had no idea.
It's the worst recovery because it has taken 6 years to accomplish what ordinarily takes 1 or 2.
..but measuring what has happened in GDP, Capital utilization, housing starts, existing home sales and many other gauges that measure economic activity..the very slow recovery, 6 years later...is quite measurable.
The mistake you're making is.."is this normal in the COUNTRY?"
The housing market is very regional..always is..it has been growing and/or not growing very differently from region to region.
Where I live there is tremendous demand for houses..so prices rise.
If you’re “woke”..you’re a loser.
- planosteve
- Posts: 22905
- Joined: Sun May 25, 2014 8:04 pm
Re: What Yellen Said
There is tremendous demand because of the tremendous money being made now by the house flippers in California and other prime housing markets. People buying a home to live in are going to be screwed when the prices plummet. The FED enables all of this with cheap interest rates.
Another reason is real estate porn TV shows like HGTV.
Another reason is real estate porn TV shows like HGTV.
"Nice little Jewish community you got here"-Arab world to Nut Job
Re: What Yellen Said
planosteve wrote:There is tremendous demand because of the tremendous money being made now by the house flippers in California and other prime housing markets. People buying a home to live in are going to be screwed when the prices plummet. The FED enables all of this with cheap interest rates.
Another reason is real estate porn TV shows like HGTV.
Prices plummeted about 6 or 7 years ago, remember?
Now they're back, but without the lowlifes getting houses even though they had no jobs, no credit, and no money down.
That's not what's going on here, now. It remains DIFFICULT to get a loan..you have to be a happenin' dude.
..and very few "flippers" around here..it's people that show up with good jobs, good money to put down, and good visibility on continued employment.
If you’re “woke”..you’re a loser.
Re: What Yellen Said
..everyone else rents, and seems to like it that way.
If you’re “woke”..you’re a loser.
- planosteve
- Posts: 22905
- Joined: Sun May 25, 2014 8:04 pm
Re: What Yellen Said
I know a pretty well known economist who lives in Dallas. Even though he has a large family, 6 or 7 kids, each housing bubble that comes along he sells his home and rents. After the bubble pops, he buys again. Has done very well.GFB wrote:..everyone else rents, and seems to like it that way.
"Nice little Jewish community you got here"-Arab world to Nut Job
Re: What Yellen Said
planosteve wrote:I know a pretty well known economist who lives in Dallas. Even though he has a large family, 6 or 7 kids, each housing bubble that comes along he sells his home and rents. After the bubble pops, he buys again. Has done very well.GFB wrote:..everyone else rents, and seems to like it that way.
Do you have reason to believe Dallas is in a housing bubble?
There certainly is not one here..it's just a very sought after area, and people just work extra hard to get in on it.
If you’re “woke”..you’re a loser.
- planosteve
- Posts: 22905
- Joined: Sun May 25, 2014 8:04 pm
Re: What Yellen Said
From the article I read Dallas is in a housing bubble too. But, like the last one, it won't be nearly a bad as a lot of places. And it depends where in Dallas. I doubt Oak Cliff is in a bubble. Colorado definitely is. An average home in Boulder is more than twice as much as Dallas. My nephew just sold his home in Ft. Collins. He owned it 5 years and cleared $125,000 on a 30 year old home. Bought another one almost as old for $450,000. He may be in trouble when prices normalize. Especially, when interest rates return to market rates he won't be able to sell it.
"Nice little Jewish community you got here"-Arab world to Nut Job
Re: What Yellen Said
planosteve wrote:From the article I read Dallas is in a housing bubble too. But, like the last one, it won't be nearly a bad as a lot of places. And it depends where in Dallas. I doubt Oak Cliff is in a bubble. Colorado definitely is. An average home in Boulder is more than twice as much as Dallas. My nephew just sold his home in Ft. Collins. He owned it 5 years and cleared $125,000 on a 30 year old home. Bought another one almost as old for $450,000. He may be in trouble when prices normalize. Especially, when interest rates return to market rates he won't be able to sell it.
Have you given consideration to the fact that prices rising does not necessarily mean a "bubble?"
And that it's simply a case supply and demand..and more and more people willing and able to pay more?
If you’re “woke”..you’re a loser.
- planosteve
- Posts: 22905
- Joined: Sun May 25, 2014 8:04 pm
Re: What Yellen Said
Have you given consideration to seeing a shrink???GFB wrote:planosteve wrote:From the article I read Dallas is in a housing bubble too. But, like the last one, it won't be nearly a bad as a lot of places. And it depends where in Dallas. I doubt Oak Cliff is in a bubble. Colorado definitely is. An average home in Boulder is more than twice as much as Dallas. My nephew just sold his home in Ft. Collins. He owned it 5 years and cleared $125,000 on a 30 year old home. Bought another one almost as old for $450,000. He may be in trouble when prices normalize. Especially, when interest rates return to market rates he won't be able to sell it.
Have you given consideration to the fact that prices rising does not necessarily mean a "bubble?"
And that it's simply a case supply and demand..and more and more people willing and able to pay more?
"Nice little Jewish community you got here"-Arab world to Nut Job
Re: What Yellen Said
planosteve wrote:Have you given consideration to seeing a shrink???GFB wrote:planosteve wrote:From the article I read Dallas is in a housing bubble too. But, like the last one, it won't be nearly a bad as a lot of places. And it depends where in Dallas. I doubt Oak Cliff is in a bubble. Colorado definitely is. An average home in Boulder is more than twice as much as Dallas. My nephew just sold his home in Ft. Collins. He owned it 5 years and cleared $125,000 on a 30 year old home. Bought another one almost as old for $450,000. He may be in trouble when prices normalize. Especially, when interest rates return to market rates he won't be able to sell it.
Have you given consideration to the fact that prices rising does not necessarily mean a "bubble?"
And that it's simply a case supply and demand..and more and more people willing and able to pay more?
So, I guess rising prices to you indicate a bubble..no way around it
If you’re “woke”..you’re a loser.
- planosteve
- Posts: 22905
- Joined: Sun May 25, 2014 8:04 pm
Re: What Yellen Said
So, I guess rising prices to you indicate a bubble..no way around it
I believe in Austrian school economics. I listen to what the Austrians say because they are almost always right. When they say it's a bubble, it's a bubble. Basicly, when one segment of the economy goes rogue without any legitimate reason, it's a bubble.
"Nice little Jewish community you got here"-Arab world to Nut Job
Re: What Yellen Said
planosteve wrote:So, I guess rising prices to you indicate a bubble..no way around it
I believe in Austrian school economics. I listen to what the Austrians say because they are almost always right. When they say it's a bubble, it's a bubble. Basicly, when one segment of the economy goes rogue without any legitimate reason, it's a bubble.
You listen to the Austrians?
Well..they do know how to roast pork and make beer.
Not much going on there in terms of economics.
If you’re “woke”..you’re a loser.
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