Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2025 12:44 pm
There is renewed focus this week on what could happen to Republicans in 2026 if President Trump’s new tariffs don’t resonate with voters: a repeat of 2018.
That was the year the GOP was routed and lost over 40 House seats in a midterm election that saw Trump’s first wave of tariffs a key factor among an electorate that had soured on Republican control of Washington.
Tariffs will also clearly be a factor again as Trump touts a "Liberation Day" tariff plan and is imposing duties that overshadow the economic effects of his entire first term.
Republicans are also already showing signs of electoral weakness, especially in Tuesday night's results from a special election in Wisconsin. A closely watched Wisconsin Supreme Court race there featured millions of dollars spent by Elon Musk ended in a 10-point Democratic win.
That comes as the takeaway from 2018, according to a detailed academic study of voting patterns, is that Republicans would likely have lost 10 fewer House seats that year if that era's trade war had been absent.
Republicans keenly remember and GOP lawmakers are already worried about the effect of duties on their electoral prospects in addition to other headwinds possibly at play — such as the role of Musk.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent even went so far this week as to reportedly reassure nervous lawmakers that this week's announcement will be the highest tariffs will go.
But voters could feel the effects of Trump 2.0 tariffs more widely, with duties already set to have multiple times the economic effect of Trump's first-term actions if left in place.
"While it's tempting to suggest that there will be a linear relationship," said one of the co-authors of that 2024 study, Dartmouth professor Emily Blanchard was quick to add that an impact is in the offing but it could be unpredictable.
Indeed, the analysis from Blanchard and her colleagues of 2018 election results found that Republican House candidates who ran for reelection that year in counties that were the most exposed to tariffs and retaliation — rural counties were generally the hardest hit in that go around — saw a bigger than average drop in support.
This time around, the economic effects are again likely to be sizable but could take a different shape, as a Trump 2.0 affinity for blanket tariffs is likely to be felt more directly by American consumers.
All told, others are willing to suggest that Trump's 2.0 tariffs plans could have a decisive impact when all Americans head to the polls next year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-t ... 15014.html
That was the year the GOP was routed and lost over 40 House seats in a midterm election that saw Trump’s first wave of tariffs a key factor among an electorate that had soured on Republican control of Washington.
Tariffs will also clearly be a factor again as Trump touts a "Liberation Day" tariff plan and is imposing duties that overshadow the economic effects of his entire first term.
Republicans are also already showing signs of electoral weakness, especially in Tuesday night's results from a special election in Wisconsin. A closely watched Wisconsin Supreme Court race there featured millions of dollars spent by Elon Musk ended in a 10-point Democratic win.
That comes as the takeaway from 2018, according to a detailed academic study of voting patterns, is that Republicans would likely have lost 10 fewer House seats that year if that era's trade war had been absent.
Republicans keenly remember and GOP lawmakers are already worried about the effect of duties on their electoral prospects in addition to other headwinds possibly at play — such as the role of Musk.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent even went so far this week as to reportedly reassure nervous lawmakers that this week's announcement will be the highest tariffs will go.
But voters could feel the effects of Trump 2.0 tariffs more widely, with duties already set to have multiple times the economic effect of Trump's first-term actions if left in place.
"While it's tempting to suggest that there will be a linear relationship," said one of the co-authors of that 2024 study, Dartmouth professor Emily Blanchard was quick to add that an impact is in the offing but it could be unpredictable.
Indeed, the analysis from Blanchard and her colleagues of 2018 election results found that Republican House candidates who ran for reelection that year in counties that were the most exposed to tariffs and retaliation — rural counties were generally the hardest hit in that go around — saw a bigger than average drop in support.
This time around, the economic effects are again likely to be sizable but could take a different shape, as a Trump 2.0 affinity for blanket tariffs is likely to be felt more directly by American consumers.
All told, others are willing to suggest that Trump's 2.0 tariffs plans could have a decisive impact when all Americans head to the polls next year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-t ... 15014.html
