Do you know of Nate Silver?

[LibraryLady2]

Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology). He is currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight blog and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,[3] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[4]

After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009.[5]

In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[8]

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His analysis currently gives Trump a 12% chance of winning the election. I have been looking at his web site every day or so and it has declined every day for the past couple of weeks.

After the GOP convention, he had them very close--48 and 42%, IIRC, but Trump has been on a downhill crash course the past couple of weeks.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/

[GFB]

"So, I'll continue to read information and move along....and try to keep my fingers from typing on political threads."

What happened? Just hours later you're starting your own political thread.

[LibraryLady2]

Just wanted to make others aware of Nate's site.

[planosteve]

Nate Silver is a moron who got lucky once. Mish has basicly destroyed him here.
https://mishtalk.com/2016/08/07/nassim- ... of-tweets/

[Red Oak]

Just wanted to make others aware of Nate's site.

Things change, quickly, even Nate's predictions.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/pre ... were-today



http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/pre ... were-today


http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-sil ... ong-2016-5

[glenn/dallas]

The 2011 movie with Brad Pitt was based on this premise. Good flick on a bad idea.

[grouchy]

Just wanted to make others aware of Nate's site.

Thank you.

[ralph]

sure , I've heard of the guy , he MIGHT be correct but I and those like me are still voting for the TRUMP .