Do you know of Nate Silver?
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:33 am
Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology). He is currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight blog and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,[3] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[4]
After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009.[5]
In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[8]
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His analysis currently gives Trump a 12% chance of winning the election. I have been looking at his web site every day or so and it has declined every day for the past couple of weeks.
After the GOP convention, he had them very close--48 and 42%, IIRC, but Trump has been on a downhill crash course the past couple of weeks.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/
After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009.[5]
In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[8]
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His analysis currently gives Trump a 12% chance of winning the election. I have been looking at his web site every day or so and it has declined every day for the past couple of weeks.
After the GOP convention, he had them very close--48 and 42%, IIRC, but Trump has been on a downhill crash course the past couple of weeks.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/