Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026

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planosteve
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Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026

Postby planosteve » Wed Apr 02, 2025 12:44 pm

There is renewed focus this week on what could happen to Republicans in 2026 if President Trump’s new tariffs don’t resonate with voters: a repeat of 2018.

That was the year the GOP was routed and lost over 40 House seats in a midterm election that saw Trump’s first wave of tariffs a key factor among an electorate that had soured on Republican control of Washington.

Tariffs will also clearly be a factor again as Trump touts a "Liberation Day" tariff plan and is imposing duties that overshadow the economic effects of his entire first term.

Republicans are also already showing signs of electoral weakness, especially in Tuesday night's results from a special election in Wisconsin. A closely watched Wisconsin Supreme Court race there featured millions of dollars spent by Elon Musk ended in a 10-point Democratic win.

That comes as the takeaway from 2018, according to a detailed academic study of voting patterns, is that Republicans would likely have lost 10 fewer House seats that year if that era's trade war had been absent.

Republicans keenly remember and GOP lawmakers are already worried about the effect of duties on their electoral prospects in addition to other headwinds possibly at play — such as the role of Musk.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent even went so far this week as to reportedly reassure nervous lawmakers that this week's announcement will be the highest tariffs will go.

But voters could feel the effects of Trump 2.0 tariffs more widely, with duties already set to have multiple times the economic effect of Trump's first-term actions if left in place.

"While it's tempting to suggest that there will be a linear relationship," said one of the co-authors of that 2024 study, Dartmouth professor Emily Blanchard was quick to add that an impact is in the offing but it could be unpredictable.

Indeed, the analysis from Blanchard and her colleagues of 2018 election results found that Republican House candidates who ran for reelection that year in counties that were the most exposed to tariffs and retaliation — rural counties were generally the hardest hit in that go around — saw a bigger than average drop in support.

This time around, the economic effects are again likely to be sizable but could take a different shape, as a Trump 2.0 affinity for blanket tariffs is likely to be felt more directly by American consumers.

All told, others are willing to suggest that Trump's 2.0 tariffs plans could have a decisive impact when all Americans head to the polls next year.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-t ... 15014.html
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Mark
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Re: Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026

Postby Mark » Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:22 pm

A couple of things...

Why didn't the author of the article mention anything about the millions spent by Soros, Pritzker, and other Democrat billionaires on the Wisconsin race?

Why don't any of these shills writing these articles talk about the trickle down effect of the taxes (income and property) pushed by Democrat politicians?

President Trump has been very clear that these tariffs are temporary and designed to get these shithole nation in line by reducing the tariffs they charge on our shit. Evil Democrats never want any tax to be temporary. They always just want more, more, more from the taxpayers.

Yahoo, lol.
November 5, 2024: The day America got Her second chance.

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planosteve
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Re: Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026

Postby planosteve » Wed Apr 02, 2025 5:17 pm

Yeah, and why does Trump hold up stuff that he signs? :roll:
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Mark
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Re: Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026

Postby Mark » Wed Apr 02, 2025 6:26 pm

planosteve wrote:Yeah, and why does Trump hold up stuff that he signs? :roll:



To demonstrate that he is keeping his word. He is the most honest and transparent president in American history.
November 5, 2024: The day America got Her second chance.

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planosteve
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Re: Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026

Postby planosteve » Wed Apr 02, 2025 7:01 pm

Mark wrote:
planosteve wrote:Yeah, and why does Trump hold up stuff that he signs? :roll:



To demonstrate that he is keeping his word. He is the most honest and transparent president in American history.
Yeah right! :roll:
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planosteve
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Re: Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026

Postby planosteve » Wed Apr 02, 2025 8:21 pm

Make America Great Again. Impeach Trump! :P

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planosteve
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Re: Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026

Postby planosteve » Thu Apr 03, 2025 6:50 am

planosteve wrote:https://theconversation.com/why-donald-trump-is-such-a-relentless-bullshitter-249896

Actually, there is an easy answer. That's all he's ever been!
A tougher question is why was he reelected? I think the answer is "4 years of Joe Biden". I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't in on it. If that is true then we are truly screwed!
I actually know people who have moved to Central America recently because they fear that is what is coming. When they return for a visit, they tell about how much more affordable it is to live there.
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Mark
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Re: Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026

Postby Mark » Thu Apr 03, 2025 8:51 am

If Central America is so great, then why are all of their people breaking into our country?
November 5, 2024: The day America got Her second chance.

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GFB
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Re: Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026

Postby GFB » Thu Apr 03, 2025 8:59 am

planosteve wrote:
planosteve wrote:https://theconversation.com/why-donald-trump-is-such-a-relentless-bullshitter-249896

Actually, there is an easy answer. That's all he's ever been!
A tougher question is why was he reelected? I think the answer is "4 years of Joe Biden". I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't in on it. If that is true then we are truly screwed!
I actually know people who have moved to Central America recently because they fear that is what is coming. When they return for a visit, they tell about how much more affordable it is to live there.


Sh*t countries are pretty much universally cheaper to live in.
If you’re “woke”..you’re a loser.

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planosteve
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Re: Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026

Postby planosteve » Thu Apr 03, 2025 10:44 am

GFB wrote:
planosteve wrote:
planosteve wrote:https://theconversation.com/why-donald-trump-is-such-a-relentless-bullshitter-249896

Actually, there is an easy answer. That's all he's ever been!
A tougher question is why was he reelected? I think the answer is "4 years of Joe Biden". I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't in on it. If that is true then we are truly screwed!
I actually know people who have moved to Central America recently because they fear that is what is coming. When they return for a visit, they tell about how much more affordable it is to live there.


Sh*t countries are pretty much universally cheaper to live in.

Depends on your definition of a "shit" country.
Make America Great Again. Impeach Trump! :P

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GFB
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Re: Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026

Postby GFB » Thu Apr 03, 2025 11:16 am

planosteve wrote:
GFB wrote:
planosteve wrote:Actually, there is an easy answer. That's all he's ever been!
A tougher question is why was he reelected? I think the answer is "4 years of Joe Biden". I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't in on it. If that is true then we are truly screwed!
I actually know people who have moved to Central America recently because they fear that is what is coming. When they return for a visit, they tell about how much more affordable it is to live there.


Sh*t countries are pretty much universally cheaper to live in.

Depends on your definition of a "shit" country.


Countries with significantly lower standard of living..usually combined with significantly less freedom.
If you’re “woke”..you’re a loser.

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rusty
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Re: Republicans can kiss goodbye to their majority in 2026

Postby rusty » Thu Apr 03, 2025 1:21 pm

Unless something crazy happens, the Rs better be prepared for the mid-terms. Especially in Texas where Abbott and Goeb are campaigning on vouchers and banning ALL THC products.

They’ve officially become out of touch with the American (Texas) public.

Kind of like when Johnny Carson went a few years too long.
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