Final reading on third quarter GDP..

[GFB]

..is in.

GDP rose 5% in the 3rd Quarter.

Biggest 3 month increase in 11 years.

[ralph]

do you think that its an honest report GFB ??

[planosteve]

It's just a headline guesstimate that they release. It will be revised several times, probably downward. Only you probably won't hear about it when it happens.

[PlanoSooner]

reminds me when those dictators get 100% of the vote

[planosteve]

do you think that its an honest report GFB ??

Since Greg seems to be missing in action let me break in. Your are right to be skeptical. The projection was crap. And the way they manipulated it was with

wait for it
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Obamacare!

Fortunately, there are people that follow this stuff and can explain it. You can read it here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-23/here-reason-surge-q3-gdp

[GFB]

do you think that its an honest report GFB ??

Yes

[GFB]

It's just a headline guesstimate that they release. It will be revised several times, probably downward. Only you probably won't hear about it when it happens.

The revisions are all in.

..and they were UP!

[GFB]

do you think that its an honest report GFB ??

The people that collect the data over the months, do not wish to be called liars or to look stupid.

[GFB]

The main reason the economy grew was..people consumed considerably more than the previous quarter.

[Red Oak]

Were Obummercare premiums 2/3s of it ?

[GFB]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/24/busin ... .html?_r=0

[planosteve]

Were Obummercare premiums 2/3s of it ?

Bingo!

In short, two-thirds of the "boost" to final Q3 personal consumption came from, drumroll, the same Obamacare which initially was supposed to boost Q1 GDP until the "polar vortex" crashed the number so badly, the BEA decided to pull it completely and leave this "growth dry powder" for another quarter. That quarter was Q3.

[GFB]

"The revision was led by an upswing in investment by businesses, a force for growth in most economic recoveries but one that has lagged in the latest rebound. Higher consumer spending and a healthier trade balance also helped. The gain makes the third quarter the strongest since the summer of 2003.

Although the growth rate is expected to decelerate somewhat in the current fourth quarter, the improved view in the rearview mirror corresponds with other evidence suggesting that the economy is moving to a higher gear.

“The data today is very consistent with a U.S. consumer that is doing quite well,” said Michael Gapen, chief United States economist at Barclays. “Consumers are receiving a boost in the form of lower gas prices but they are also feeling more confident about their own futures because of the stronger labor market.”

In a separate Commerce Department report Tuesday morning, the government reported that personal spending jumped 0.6 percent in November, slightly more than expected, while October’s increase was revised upward by 0.1 percentage point to 0.3 percent. Personal income jumped by 0.4 percent in November, the Commerce Department said, ahead of the 0.3 percent rise in October and the 0.2 percent increase in September."

[GFB]

Ok?

[GFB]

When it comes to understanding markets, the economy, and financial concerns in general..politics can really mess you up.

[planosteve]

When it comes to understanding markets, the economy, and financial concerns in general..politics can really mess you up.

Figures don't lie. But, liars figure. And the govt. is full of them.

[Red Oak]

Well if it includes Obummercare Premiums carried over from Q1 it is a specious figure.

[GFB]

I don't get it.

Is there some pain or extreme discomfort involved in acknowledging that GDP grew nicely in the 3rd quarter?

[GFB]

Sure is good news at my house.

[Red Oak]

I am happy the market is up, but I don't accept Guberment BS at face value, the Economy is better but it is a long way from good, then again this may be the new normal.