On Bob Brinker today..

[GFB]

..Bob spoke in his opening monologue about the continuing improving of the economy..

..specifically, how in the month of November, (besides the revised GDP upward) personal income rose 4/10ths of 1 percent that month.

That equates to a 5 percent annualized increase in personal income.

Also, disposable income and the consumer confidence index also rose sharply that month.

This is all good news for 2015.

[GFB]

The guest in the final hour is Harold James..author of "Making the European Monetary Union."

[planosteve]

Since Bob is an expert on the economy and how it is doing did he mention any of the following?

NATIONAL DEFICIT: $18 TRILLION DOLLARS!
UNFUNDED LIABILITIES: $240 TRILLION DOLLARS!
DERIVATIVES DEBT: ONE QUADRILLION DOLLARS!
UNEMPLOYED AMERICANS OUTNUMBER EMPLOYED AMERICANS! -
See more at:http://www.thedailysheeple.com/the-math-does-not-lie-america-is-one-hiccup-away-from-total-anarchy_122014#sthash.9ltGyFvC.dpuf

[GFB]

Since Bob is an expert on the economy and how it is doing did he mention any of the following?

NATIONAL DEFICIT: $18 TRILLION DOLLARS! ...mentions it all the time.
UNFUNDED LIABILITIES: $240 TRILLION DOLLARS! not with those figures..but frequently speaks of how Congress is derilect in their duties regarding this subject
DERIVATIVES DEBT: ONE QUADRILLION DOLLARS! have never heard that from ANYONE
UNEMPLOYED AMERICANS OUTNUMBER EMPLOYED AMERICANS! - that is a really ridiculous comment
See more at:http://www.thedailysheeple.com/the-math-does-not-lie-america-is-one-hiccup-away-from-total-anarchy_122014#sthash.9ltGyFvC.dpuf

You started out ok, but got more and more silly.

[GFB]

..and thanks for the silly video.

[planosteve]

I did catch a bit of the Brinker Show. He had a caller asking about Corporate stock buy backs. Bob though it was a "great call". He pontificated for about 15 minutes on the subject. I had no idea why investor would need to know anything about the subject. After listening to Bob I still don't. But, that my just be due to my lack of intelligence. I'll check the recap tomorrow on Honey's site to see what she thought.

[planosteve]

According to Honey, Bob practically broke his arm patting himself on the back for staying fully invested in the market for the year.
That was compared to 2008 when the bottom fell out and he stayed fully invested. Back then, Bob went for months with without ever mentioning the stock market.

But, on bonds, apparently he didn't do so good.

http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.blogspot.com/2014/

[GFB]

Staying invested in the stock market from 2008 until now was the genius move.

Everyone that got hurt back then either panicked out, tried to time the market, or were not diversified.

[planosteve]

Staying invested in the stock market from 2008 until now was the genius move.

Everyone that got hurt back then either panicked out, tried to time the market, or were not diversified.

I don't see that missing the bear market signals and riding it all the way to the bottom is any kind of a
"genius" move. That is Ken Moriff's point. Buy and hold sucks. He got his people out of the market.

[GFB]

Staying invested in the stock market from 2008 until now was the genius move.

Everyone that got hurt back then either panicked out, tried to time the market, or were not diversified.

I don't see that missing the bear market signals and riding it all the way to the bottom is any kind of a
"genius" move. That is Ken Moriff's point. Buy and hold sucks. He got his people out of the market.

Wrong.

Attempting to get out and back in is/was a tremendously risky maneuver.

There are plenty of people still "out" from trying that. Trying that meant you MUST be right twice.

..and let's see some proof that he got people out and back in..besides "he says so."..where's the proof?

[GFB]

There was no risk in being patient.

[GFB]

Here's what I find about Ken Moraif.


"Money Matters with Ken Moraif - Wrong Again!


Ken Moraif has admitted that his market timing system doesn't always work. Of course, that's not a big shock to anyone who actually understands capital market behavior. In a video post, he explained why he was wrong in 2010. But, of course, he also slid right into sales mode and explained why you should continue to believe in his market timing system - because it's going to protect you even though it's not perfect.

He blew it again in 2011! He got his clients out on August 5 and told everyone to expect "financial Armageddon", which was an incredibly irresponsible prediction. The S&P 500 started the year at 1257.64. It closed on August 5 at 1199.38. Getting out locked in a loss of about 4.6%. Today, the S&P 500 closed at 1315.38. An investor who simply held an S&P 500 index fund has had a return of about 5.3% since the beginning of 2011 and they haven't incurred trading costs, paid high fees, or realized taxable capital gains on a sale. As far as I can tell, Ken still hasn't advised clients to get back in. You see, that's part of the problem with this absurd idea - it requires two decisions and both are statistically unlikely to be correct.



Moraif charges high fees for a strategy that's dubious, at best - and then uses those fees to purchase airtime for his infomercials to drive more suckers to his seminars. Don't be one of them! All that garbage about being a CFP with many years of experience doesn't have any correlation whatsoever to being able to manage a portfolio. In fact, the CFP curriculum has one very basic section on investing that doesn't qualify anyone to do anything. It's just another way that charlatans like Moraif can attempt to build credibility with their target audience.



What do some actual experts have to say about a market timing strategy?

"I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year, or the next two." - Warren Buffet

"If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed in forecasting what’s going to happen to the stock market." - Benjamin Graham, Author and "the father of securities analysis"

"Market-timing is bunk." - Pat Dorsey, Director of Morningstar Fund Analysis

"The market timer’s Hall of Fame is an empty room." - Jane Bryant Quinn, Author, Columnist - Newsweek

"Market timing is a poor substitute for a long-term investment plan." - Jonathan Clements, The Wall Street Journal

"No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully. In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." - John Bogle, Founder of The Vanguard Group

"Nobody but nobody, has consistently guessed the direction of the bond or stock market over any meaningful length of time." - John Markese, President, AAII Journal

"There is absolutely no evidence that anyone can time the market." - Bill Bernstein, Author

"Only liars manage to always be ‘out’ during bad times and ‘in’ during good times." - Bernard Baruch, Presidential Economic Advisor

"There is an overwhelming body of evidence to support the view that believing in the ability of market timers is the equivalent of believing astrologers can predict the future." - Larry Swedroe, Author

So, it's no surprise that this strategy doesn't work. The only surprise is that people continue to fall for the sales pitch. Maybe the cookies are laced with some sort of mind altering drug. "

[planosteve]

I don't think Bernard Baruch ever heard of "Quantative Easing".