Aussie meteorologists see El Niño ebbing

[Bob Of Burleson]

BoM Says El Niño "Unlikely" To Be Strong

ReportingClimateScience.com

The chances of a strong El Nino event taking place in 2014 appear to be dwindling as the Pacific Ocean cools prompting Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) to caution that "El Nino remains on hold" and that "If an El Nino were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event".

This carefully nuanced toning-down of expectations is in response to evidence of a cooling of the Pacific Ocean in recent weeks and the fact that trade winds have not weakened in line with the usual pattern of El Nino development. Also, BoM's computer model forecast suggests El Nino thresholds for sea surface warming may not be exceeded.

"Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, a general lack of atmospheric response over the last month has resulted in some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean," states BoM in its latest report on the so called El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

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[BigTex]

So which is it?

[GFB]

Told ya!

Big nuttin'.